The problem
Historically, Ethiopia's health facility supply planning was a quarterly exercise that required constant informal communication. Facility pharmacists and supply managers knew they needed to forecast their quarterly need, but the process was ad-hoc. They'd email drafts to regional coordinators, receive feedback via phone calls or return emails, then resubmit. This back-and-forth happened informally and asynchronously, stretching across 6-8 weeks. Worse, there was an information asymmetry. EPSS and the Ministry in Addis Ababa didn't see the same data the facilities saw. When a regional team flagged a facility's forecast as too high, that facility manager had no idea why. There was no shared platform where they could see the rationale for corrections or learn from comparison to peer facilities. The system was opaque, frustrating, and inefficient. Facility managers felt disconnected from the national planning process. They were asked to forecast without understanding whether their data would be used, validated, or ignored. Monthly resupply decisions were made in Addis Ababa without visibility into facility-level constraints (storage, staffing, demand patterns). The result was frequent misalignment between what facilities needed and what was centrally planned.
What we built
ForLab+ introduced a unified, transparent planning environment where facility staff, regional coordinators, and national planners all work in the same system. Each quarter, a facility manager logs in, sees their previous consumption history (auto-populated from their point-of-sale data), reviews recent variance alerts, and enters their Q3 forecast. The forecast is instantly validated: Is it in line with recent consumption? Does it account for seasonal variation? Regional teams see all submissions across their jurisdiction in a single view. They can drill into a facility's submission, see the reasoning behind it (or flag inconsistencies), and provide feedback directly in the platform. All communication around the forecast is logged. When EPSS returns a revised regional allocation to a facility, the facility manager sees not just the number, but the context: "Based on consumption data from peer facilities in your region and Global Fund commitments for Q3, we've adjusted your TB medication allocation from X to Y." This transparency builds confidence in the planning process. The platform runs quarterly planning cycles, but facilities can update their submissions within a defined window. If a facility's circumstances change (sudden influx of patients, unexpected facility closure), they can resubmit with notes explaining the revision. This flexibility was impossible in the old spreadsheet model.
What changed
Facility visibility into planning improved measurably. In a Q4 2025 survey of 200+ facility managers: - 89% said they understood why their allocation changed quarter-to-quarter. - 84% reported that the feedback they received on their forecast was clear and actionable. - 78% said they'd increased confidence in national supply planning because they could see peer facility data and regional patterns. Planning cycle time compressed as measured by EPSS staff: - Q1 2024 (manual process): 12 weeks from forecast launch to final allocation published. - Q1 2026 (ForLab+): 6 weeks from launch to allocation, with 94%+ facilities completing submission by week 4. Facility staff also reported operational benefits: - Pharmacists can now see whether a facility down the road had similar consumption variance, so they can benchmark and learn. - Supply managers can plan resupply shipments more confidently because allocations are known weeks earlier. - Regional coordinators spend 60% less time on follow-up emails and corrections. One facility matron in Addis Ababa said: "Before, we'd fill out the forecast and hope it was right. Now we can see the data, compare to last quarter, ask questions about anomalies, and feel certain we're submitting something reasonable. And when the allocation comes back, we understand the reasoning."
""We used to guess. Now we have numbers we understand and can stand behind.""